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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 17 games
65%
Mirana
Mirana
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 14 games
71%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 827 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 663 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 592 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 706 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 619 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
378 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total83% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
BETBOOM TEAM 67%Talon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 52:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
51% · 181 game44% · 25 games
MeepoAkashi
Meepo
Lycan
LycanMieRo
51% · 20 games53% · 84 games
LeshracCHYuan
Leshrac
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightgpK~
49% · 138 games46% · 170 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Muerta
MuertaSave-
59% · 51 game45% · 154 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 95 games56% · 52 games
OraclePonyo
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct25:11
BETBOOM TEAM 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
57% · 144 games45% · 109 games
LifestealerAkashi
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
50% · 125 games52% · 170 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Zeus
ZeusgpK~
44% · 75 games47% · 50 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 109 games41% · 105 games
SnapfireJhocam
Snapfire
Tiny
TinySave-
51% · 195 games55% · 214 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 83%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2