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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
42%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 18 games
72%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 17 games
47%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 45 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 41 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 38 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 731 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 570 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 358 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 786 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
337 picks · 937 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:23
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 23:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
46% · 122 games49% · 248 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightgpK~
46% · 158 games56% · 112 games
LeshracMalr1ne
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaMieRo
49% · 136 games46% · 74 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 106 games60% · 98 games
EnigmaSneyking
Enigma
Bane
BaneSave-
52% · 80 games42% · 70 games
IoCr1t-
Io
Game 2prediction correct22:34
BETBOOM TEAM 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
47% · 115 games57% · 32 games
BristlebackSkiter
Bristleback
Lina
LinagpK~
54% · 43 games55% · 58 games
SlardarMalr1ne
Slardar
Timbersaw
TimbersawMieRo
51% · 90 games50% · 63 games
ViperATF
Viper
Batrider
BatriderSave-
49% · 130 games49% · 148 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Abaddon
AbaddonTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 17 games44% · 94 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2