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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Mirana
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 17 games
41%
Kunkka
Kunkka
MieRo · 15 games
47%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nightfall · 15 games
40%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
84%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 379 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 427 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 535 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
333 picks · 741 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 643 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 753 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 644 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 7
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:34
BETBOOM TEAM 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
53% · 200 games52% · 176 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightgpK~
53% · 237 games47% · 64 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Slardar
SlardarMieRo
48% · 99 games49% · 173 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 62 games48% · 228 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSave-
54% · 193 games46% · 150 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct31:33
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
49% · 174 games42% · 178 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinygpK~
45% · 308 games48% · 161 game
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
56% · 110 games56% · 213 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 64 games47% · 165 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
48% · 94 games61% · 33 games
OmniknightSneyking
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2