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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Bane
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
fn · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
7jesu · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
fn · 8 games
75%

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 17 games
41%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 14 games
43%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 635 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
454 picks · 281 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 492 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
400 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 794 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 549 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 558 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:16.
Game 2prediction correct24:15
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:33.
Game 3prediction correct37:19
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 58:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 57%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3