DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 27 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MieRo · 25 games
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nightfall · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 15 games
Phoenixsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 18 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 14 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 12 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
Tiny
Larl · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 339 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 474 bans
Mars
297 picks · 398 bans
Techies
280 picks · 195 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 151 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
265 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:23
BETBOOM TEAM 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:14:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidNightfall
SvenYatoro
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
PangolierLarl
InvokergpK~
Primal BeastCollapse
TechiesSave-
BatriderMiposhka
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
LionMira
Game 2prediction correct18:16
BETBOOM TEAM 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNightfall
LifestealerYatoro
LycanMieRo
LeshracLarl
KunkkagpK~
MarsCollapse
BatriderSave-
GrimstrokeMiposhka
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
LionMira
Game 3prediction missed9:25
BETBOOM TEAM 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoNightfall
LifestealerYatoro
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
PuckLarl
Storm SpiritgpK~
Primal BeastCollapse
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
TinyMira
Keeper of the LightSave-
PhoenixMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3