?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 30 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 26 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 24 games
63%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 22 games
68%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 25 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 622 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
446 picks · 395 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
425 picks · 470 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 849 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 563 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 361 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 539 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:16
BETBOOM TEAM 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
58% · 74 games54% · 225 games
BristlebackYatoro
Bristleback
Puck
PuckgpK~
51% · 127 games42% · 107 games
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Lycan
LycanMieRo
48% · 50 games44% · 61 game
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderSave-
46% · 208 games58% · 32 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Oracle
OracleKataomi
49% · 27 games54% · 61 game
Rikirue
Riki
Game 2prediction missed36:15
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPure~
48% · 230 games55% · 138 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckgpK~
53% · 279 games44% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMieRo
48% · 243 games52% · 219 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Marci
MarciSave-
49% · 153 games50% · 296 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Dazzle
DazzleKataomi
44% · 30 games53% · 147 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed47:11
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPure~
44% · 82 games55% · 243 games
BristlebackYatoro
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaMieRo
47% · 153 games47% · 185 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KinggpK~
59% · 255 games45% · 159 games
DawnbreakerCollapse
Dawnbreaker
Muerta
MuertaSave-
50% · 329 games48% · 131 game
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Bane
BaneKataomi
56% · 53 games51% · 154 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3