PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Jakiro
Kataomi · 42 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 37 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 34 games
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 24 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 23 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
Tusk
rue · 31 game
Ringmastersignature
rue · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
610 picks · 537 bans
Tiny
536 picks · 411 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 544 bans
Hoodwink
480 picks · 241 bans
Tusk
471 picks · 417 bans
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1017 bans
Puck
387 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:5
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKiritych
TerrorbladeYatoro
BeastmasterMieRo
UnderlordBatyuk
PuckgpK~
TinyLarl
WindrangerSave-
Ringmasterrue
LichKataomi
SilencerPanto
Game 2prediction correct26:4
BETBOOM TEAM 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaKiritych
LunaYatoro
LycanMieRo
AxeBatyuk
PuckgpK~
Void SpiritLarl
RubickSave-
SilencerPanto
Treant ProtectorKataomi
Hoodwinkrue
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2