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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
55%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
746 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1012 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 377 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 962 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
391 picks · 634 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total57% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 53:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
56% · 48 games56% · 71 game
LunaKiritych
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordPure~
50% · 73 games51% · 376 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Tiny
TinygpK~
50% · 333 games45% · 88 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
43% · 91 game52% · 37 games
Spirit BreakerFng
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 193 games48% · 166 games
Skywrath Magesayuw
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct20:7
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
47% · 138 games50% · 100 games
JuggernautKiritych
Juggernaut
Tiny
TinygpK~
55% · 352 games55% · 369 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxePure~
49% · 8 games44% · 95 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
47% · 98 games50% · 154 games
Skywrath Magesayuw
Skywrath Mage
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 171 game40% · 49 games
Shadow DemonFng
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 57%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2