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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Betrayedloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Betrayed

Disruptor
Disruptor
Flash · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Flash · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
symetricaL · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Mirage · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
0%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
798 picks · 559 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 400 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 557 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
458 picks · 742 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
415 picks · 839 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
415 picks · 292 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 864 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Betrayed
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:58
Betrayed 35%PuckChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:09:17.
Game 2prediction missed41:32
Betrayed 35%PuckChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Betrayed in 1:11:42.
Game 3prediction correct20:26
Betrayed 35%PuckChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 56:14.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 65%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3