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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Betrayedwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Blinkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Betrayed

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
OwnedMe · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Flash · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
100%
Marci
Marci
Shad · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Shad · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
100%

Team Blink

Silencer
Silencer
smN · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 2 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
smN · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
smN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
788 picks · 530 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 404 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 572 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
430 picks · 704 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 294 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
397 picks · 781 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 830 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Betrayed
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Betrayed
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Betrayed 56%Team Blink 44%
The model gave 56% on Betrayed — the game was taken by Betrayed in 20:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusMirage
65% · 15 games47% · 152 games
Drow RangerkAAN
Drow Ranger
Slark
SlarkShad
38% · 17 games39% · 69 games
Ogre MagismN
Ogre Magi
Death Prophet
Death ProphetsymetricaL
50% · 59 games
Tiny
TinyOwnedMe
59% · 74 games
Rubick
RubickFlash
64% · 56 games
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Betrayed 54%Team Blink 46%
The model gave 54% on Betrayed — the game was taken by Betrayed in 22:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmothersymetricaL
54% · 29 games44% · 53 games
AlchemistkAAN
Alchemist
Lina
LinaShad
59% · 77 games54% · 285 games
UndyingsmN
Undying
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
52% · 52 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOwnedMe
50% · 64 games
Rubick
RubickFlash
37% · 116 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBetrayed · 53%
Series resultBetrayed 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2