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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Holy Grailloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusksignature
marblue · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
GodKing · 8 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tz. · 7 games
71%

Holy Grail

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Drink · 6 games
100%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Sj · 6 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Drink · 6 games
83%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
699 picks · 482 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
579 picks · 625 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1102 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 503 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1224 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
476 picks · 1042 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
464 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 915 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Holy Grail
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:33
Big Brain 43%Holy Grail 57%
The model gave 57% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Big Brain in 54:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGodKing
57% · 49 games55% · 38 games
LifestealerSummer
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSakata
50% · 71 game43% · 96 games
PuckGaN-
Puck
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritcsj
52% · 14 games45% · 41 game
Spirit BreakerDrink
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
Tuskomoxiloyi
53% · 155 games47% · 114 games
SilencerSj
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct15:25
Big Brain 40%Holy Grail 60%
The model gave 60% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGodKing
41% · 29 games46% · 95 games
Faceless VoidSummer
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSakata
51% · 296 games55% · 230 games
BatriderGaN-
Batrider
Timbersaw
Timbersawcsj
51% · 171 game60% · 209 games
MiranaDrink
Mirana
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeromoxiloyi
41% · 120 games51% · 82 games
LichSj
Lich
Game 3prediction missed36:31
Big Brain 42%Holy Grail 58%
The model gave 58% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Big Brain in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGodKing
54% · 76 games50% · 36 games
JuggernautSummer
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSakata
53% · 195 games56% · 191 game
TinyGaN-
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinomoxiloyi
56% · 129 games49% · 163 games
BatriderDrink
Batrider
Windranger
Windrangercsj
39% · 109 games43% · 119 games
SilencerSj
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 66%
Series resultBig Brain 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3