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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Limitloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 21 game
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
710 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1228 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
494 picks · 953 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
440 picks · 1097 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 882 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
415 picks · 220 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 588 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 18%
Hero pool strength55% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:35
Big Brain 56%Limit 44%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 47:04.
Game 2prediction missed11:34
Big Brain 56%Limit 44%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Limit in 24:39.
Game 3prediction correct47:19
Big Brain 56%Limit 44%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 41:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 56%
Series resultBig Brain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3