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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Supernovaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 5 games
40%

Supernova

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
606 picks · 957 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
555 picks · 440 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 358 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1165 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
505 picks · 494 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
504 picks · 363 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Supernova
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:17
Big Brain 41%Supernova 59%
The model gave 59% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingManic
49% · 83 games49% · 640 games
Rubicksheep
Rubick
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
53% · 160 games
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMolasses
52% · 19 games
Mirana
Miranamarblue
51% · 173 games
Tusk
TuskTz.
49% · 205 games
Game 2prediction missed25:13
Big Brain 38%Supernova 62%
The model gave 62% on Supernova — the game was taken by Big Brain in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerManic
67% · 20 games45% · 160 games
Phoenixsheep
Phoenix
Visage
Visagemarblue
65% · 16 games
Primal Beast
Primal BeastEcho
44% · 21 game
Mirana
MiranaTz.
48% · 40 games
Tusk
TuskMolasses
52% · 63 games
Game 3prediction missed24:9
Big Brain 40%Supernova 60%
The model gave 60% on Supernova — the game was taken by Big Brain in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendManic
49% · 82 games48% · 481 game
Rubicksheep
Rubick
Visage
Visagemarblue
57% · 47 games
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEcho
60% · 63 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTz.
47% · 84 games
Tusk
TuskMolasses
49% · 205 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 71%
Series resultBig Brain 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3