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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Supernovaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Molasses · 6 games
67%

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
sheep · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
753 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
552 picks · 1092 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1335 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
478 picks · 536 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 963 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1156 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
451 picks · 644 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Big Brain
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:34
Big Brain 47%Supernova 53%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSakata
69% · 31 game51% · 96 games
Shadow Demonsheep
Shadow Demon
Windranger
WindrangerGodKing
50% · 16 games
Dark Seer
Dark Seercsj
50% · 12 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeromoxiloyi
26% · 23 games
Venomancer
VenomancerTz.
50% · 14 games
Game 2prediction missed41:37
Big Brain 47%Supernova 53%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Big Brain in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGodKing
52% · 21 game51% · 83 games
Shadow Demonsheep
Shadow Demon
Timbersaw
TimbersawSakata
32% · 15 games
Windranger
Windrangercsj
50% · 16 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
57% · 19 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTz.
56% · 12 games
Game 3prediction missed33:10
Big Brain 48%Supernova 52%
The model gave 52% on Supernova — the game was taken by Big Brain in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGodKing
52% · 21 game48% · 86 games
Shadow Demonsheep
Shadow Demon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSakata
65% · 13 games
Windranger
Windrangercsj
50% · 16 games
Tusk
Tuskomoxiloyi
40% · 16 games
Silencer
SilencerTz.
54% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 56%
Series resultBig Brain 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3