Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Disillusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Tusksignature
marblue · 15 games
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
GodKing · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 534 bans
Disruptor
595 picks · 515 bans
Doom
558 picks · 1092 bans
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1244 bans
Techies
532 picks · 585 bans
Pangolier
471 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1067 bans
Enchantress
455 picks · 653 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Big Brain
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:33
Big Brain 56%Team Disillusion 44%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingGodKing
Skywrath MageEren
PuckSakata
Marscsj
Tuskomoxiloyi
Game 2prediction correct33:24
Big Brain 51%Team Disillusion 49%
The model gave 51% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeGodKing
EnchantressEren
Monkey KingSakata
Windrangercsj
Nyx Assassinomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 55%
Series resultBig Brain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2