Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Zerowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Tusk
marblue · 12 games
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Team Zero
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 2 games
Rubick
iceice · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
7e · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 626 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1284 bans
Doom
520 picks · 1013 bans
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1149 bans
Pangolier
447 picks · 923 bans
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 78%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:28
Big Brain 39%Team Zero 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistGodKing
TerrorbladeCty
Doomcsj
WindrangerBEYOND
Void SpiritSakata
Timbersaw7e
Dark Willowomoxiloyi
Spirit Breakericeice
SilencerTz.
Venomancerzzq
Game 2prediction correct22:28
Big Brain 37%Team Zero 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeGodKing
WindrangerCty
Beastmastercsj
MedusaBEYOND
Winter WyvernSakata
Void Spirit7e
Rubickomoxiloyi
Enchantresszzq
Shadow DemonTz.
Lioniceice
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 73%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2