Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TLThe Last Darkwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Tusksignature
omoxiloyi · 18 games
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
GodKing · 8 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tz. · 7 games
The Last Dark
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 4 games
Silencer
strawberry · 4 games
Void Spirit
poyoyo · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Shining · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
699 picks · 478 bans
Techies
595 picks · 637 bans
Doom
570 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 499 bans
Beastmaster
526 picks · 1233 bans
Ember Spirit
474 picks · 1051 bans
Enchantress
464 picks · 680 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Big Brain 43%The Last Dark 57%
The model gave 57% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 25:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageGodKing
Morphlingpoyoyo
Enigmacsj
Ember SpiritEcho
Storm SpiritSakata
TidehunterShining
Skywrath Mageomoxiloyi
Batriderstrawberry
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 64%
Series resultThe Last Dark 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1