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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Bikini Bottomwin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bikini Bottom

Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
aik · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 2 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
aik · 2 games
100%
Techies
Techies
aik · 2 games
0%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 21 game
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 21 game
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
490 picks · 255 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
468 picks · 460 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 963 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 147 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
293 picks · 484 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 492 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 619 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:16
Bikini Bottom 37%Passion UA 63%
The model gave 63% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 54:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painряф^^
41% · 174 games46% · 105 games
LifestealerCrystallize
Lifestealer
Doom
Doomrincyq
53% · 264 games59% · 283 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
44% · 157 games49% · 254 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Silencer
Silenceraik
49% · 220 games58% · 140 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Ringmaster
RingmasterImmersion
51% · 292 games50% · 325 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct8:45
Bikini Bottom 27%Passion UA 73%
The model gave 73% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 29:18.
Game 3prediction missed12:41
Bikini Bottom 27%Passion UA 73%
The model gave 73% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 38:41.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 73%
Series resultBikini Bottom 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3