Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ChillOutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
No games played over 6 months.
ChillOut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 328 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 379 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 573 bans
Lion
227 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
226 picks · 247 bans
Lina
221 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
215 picks · 269 bans
Bane
212 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% ChillOut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
Black Ice eSports 46%ChillOut 54%
The model gave 54% on ChillOut — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 31:07.
Game 2prediction missed23:11
Black Ice eSports 46%ChillOut 54%
The model gave 54% on ChillOut — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 17:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteChillOut · 54%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2