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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
785 picks · 538 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 400 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 437 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 571 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
437 picks · 711 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
406 picks · 791 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 844 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 79%
Hero pool strength56% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Blacklist International 36%Army Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 25:43.
Game 2prediction correct43:32
Blacklist International 36%Army Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 58:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 64%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2