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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Darlengloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Darleng

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 4 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Raven · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yowe · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 604 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
365 picks · 291 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 562 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 713 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 195 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 342 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Darleng
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
Blacklist International 56%Darleng 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Darleng in 39:08.
Game 2prediction missed30:10
Blacklist International 56%Darleng 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Darleng in 43:06.
Game 3prediction missed25:13
Blacklist International 56%Darleng 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Darleng in 35:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 56%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3