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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Geek Famloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
46%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Roddgeee · 10 games
30%
Marci
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Roddgeee · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
821 picks · 576 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
596 picks · 409 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 777 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
432 picks · 891 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
430 picks · 307 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
Blacklist International 51%Geek Fam 49%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 26:46.
Game 2prediction missed18:43
Blacklist International 51%Geek Fam 49%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 59:54.
Game 3prediction missed15:20
Blacklist International 51%Geek Fam 49%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 50:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 51%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3