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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Geek Famloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Geek Fam

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skem · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Skem · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
462 picks · 227 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
441 picks · 469 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 649 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 599 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
331 picks · 693 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
324 picks · 762 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
308 picks · 514 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 621 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 81%
Hero pool strength61% Geek Fam
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:10
Blacklist International 52%Geek Fam 48%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 40:33.
Game 2prediction missed8:24
Blacklist International 52%Geek Fam 48%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 32:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2