ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Jawirloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Jawir
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 181 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
175 picks · 73 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
151 picks · 244 bans
Phoenix
150 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:19
Blacklist International 79%Jawir 21%
The model gave 79% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 79%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1