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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 14 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Setsu · 13 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 12 games
42%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 631 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 366 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 429 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
308 picks · 517 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 406 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 112 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
296 picks · 167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:2
Blacklist International 45%LGD Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 19:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGabbi
53% · 139 games49% · 167 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Weaver
WeaverNatsumi
51% · 210 games47% · 193 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
48% · 351 game50% · 192 games
Marsniu
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
46% · 242 games53% · 206 games
Crystal Maideny`
Crystal Maiden
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
47% · 46 games54% · 230 games
Dark WillowPyw
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed36:32
Blacklist International 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGabbi
49% · 123 games52% · 110 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
44% · 61 game50% · 157 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
43% · 51 game57% · 200 games
PangolierEcho
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
45% · 142 games58% · 57 games
Spirit BreakerPyw
Spirit Breaker
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
50% · 158 games42% · 11 games
Ogre Magiy`
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2