DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAG.Indonesialoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
MAG.Indonesia
Hoodwink
dalul · 3 games
Pugna
woMy · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
dalul · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Doomoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
woMy · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
woMy · 1 game
Meepooften banned
Cije · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 354 bans
Centaur Warrunner
365 picks · 592 bans
Mars
355 picks · 547 bans
Techies
352 picks · 279 bans
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
331 picks · 692 bans
Hoodwink
321 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
312 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:13
Blacklist International 81%MAG.Indonesia 19%
The model gave 81% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 31:14.
Game 2prediction missed22:33
Blacklist International 81%MAG.Indonesia 19%
The model gave 81% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 41:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 81%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2