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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 4 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Abed · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 2 games
0%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 30 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 27 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 19 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 632 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 362 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 440 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 540 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 174 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
284 picks · 176 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
Blacklist International 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by OG in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGabbi
48% · 131 game40% · 38 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
48% · 55 games51% · 232 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Puck
PuckAbed
58% · 154 games50% · 165 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
47% · 93 games54% · 120 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
42% · 173 games62% · 51 game
MarciCeb
Marci
Game 2prediction correct40:24
Blacklist International 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
51% · 84 games52% · 98 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
52% · 145 games50% · 320 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGabbi
50% · 246 games55% · 104 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
46% · 192 games45% · 104 games
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
47% · 34 games50% · 75 games
Elder TitanCeb
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2