Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Salvation Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Salvation Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
339 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 529 bans
Mars
319 picks · 475 bans
Techies
307 picks · 239 bans
Hoodwink
297 picks · 176 bans
Batrider
296 picks · 564 bans
Tiny
283 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Blacklist International 71%Salvation Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 40:09.
Game 2prediction correct
Blacklist International 71%Salvation Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 71%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2