PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sskem&friendswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
Hoodwinkoften banned
Tims · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
skem&friends
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Jakiro
Skem · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Jing · 2 games
Alchemist
flyfly · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Jing · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
zeal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
428 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 455 bans
Weaver
391 picks · 833 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 758 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 526 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 507 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 596 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% skem&friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:22
Blacklist International 56%skem&friends 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by skem&friends in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMac
Linaflyfly
MorphlingNatsumi
LeshracYowe
Death ProphetRaven
Brewmasterzeal
TinkerJaunuel
HoodwinkJing
Nyx AssassinTims
OmniknightSkem
Game 2prediction missed11:29
Blacklist International 54%skem&friends 46%
The model gave 54% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by skem&friends in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Muertaflyfly
BeastmasterRaven
InvokerYowe
Earth SpiritMac
Pangolierzeal
TinkerJaunuel
LeshracSkem
RubickTims
TuskJing
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 59%
Series resultskem&friends 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2