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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 4 games
75%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 19 games
84%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 687 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 376 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 459 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 602 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
312 picks · 236 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 351 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 202 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 542 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:33
Blacklist International 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:11:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNatsumi
54% · 115 games52% · 121 game
PuckLarl
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingAbed
51% · 16 games47% · 73 games
Shadow FiendYatoro
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGabbi
49% · 114 games50% · 152 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTims
52% · 59 games58% · 19 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
43% · 160 games52% · 99 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed30:8
Blacklist International 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
53% · 106 games48% · 179 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
58% · 102 games45% · 55 games
Shadow FiendLarl
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterGabbi
49% · 133 games43% · 154 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
54% · 129 games48% · 134 games
LionMira
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
49% · 161 game53% · 109 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2