The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Rubick
DJ · 17 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 10 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 9 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 7 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 31 game
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
Enigmaoften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 26 games
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
661 picks · 455 bans
Techies
660 picks · 696 bans
Doom
578 picks · 1125 bans
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1217 bans
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1039 bans
Disruptor
477 picks · 445 bans
Enchantress
463 picks · 719 bans
Pangolier
437 picks · 907 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:26
Bleed Esports 40%9Pandas 60%
The model gave 60% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
MedusaRAMZES666
Doomiceiceice
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
EnchantressDuBu
BeastmasterMieRo
Shadow DemonDJ
RubickAntares
51% · 295 games
UndyingSolo
Game 2prediction correct5:30
Bleed Esports 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
Timbersawiceiceice
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
PugnaDuBu
LycanMieRo
TechiesDJ
Skywrath MageAntares
36% · 224 games
UndyingSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 68%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2