Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
Tiny
Topson · 10 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 13 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 13 games
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
Tiny
Shanks · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 358 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 332 bans
Rubick
289 picks · 213 bans
Mirana
270 picks · 271 bans
Crystal Maiden
193 picks · 142 bans
Snapfire
188 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 499 bans
Treant Protector
179 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:22
Bleed Esports 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 51:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingJaCkky
SniperPalos
RubickPlayHard
Ember SpiritBob
OmniknightDuBu
VisageTino-
51% · 135 games
MarciShanks
Game 2prediction correct25:32
Bleed Esports 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaJaCkky
Nature's ProphetTino-
RubickPlayHard
PuckBob
Crystal MaidenDuBu
MarciPalos
49% · 29 games
RikiShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2