Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
Rubick
DJ · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
DJ · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Lion
Skem · 7 games
Mirana
Jing · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 538 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 339 bans
Mars
328 picks · 504 bans
Techies
317 picks · 252 bans
Batrider
306 picks · 597 bans
Hoodwink
301 picks · 182 bans
Tiny
290 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Bleed Esports 40%Geek Fam 60%
The model gave 60% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerJaCkky
Dragon KnightMac
ZeusMikoto
MorphlingNatsumi
Marszeal
MiranaSkem
BatriderDJ
Shadow DemonPoloson
Game 2prediction correct16:32
Bleed Esports 42%Geek Fam 58%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 54:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingJaCkky
Drow RangerNatsumi
PangolierMikoto
RazorMac
Beastmasterzeal
Shadow DemonSkem
GyrocopterDJ
Crystal MaidenPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 67%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2