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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
40%
Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 12 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
83%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
50%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 24 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
615 picks · 646 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1113 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 494 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1240 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
485 picks · 1053 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 686 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 923 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Bleed Esports 38%PSG Quest 62%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawiceiceice
52% · 253 games48% · 105 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
52% · 245 games48% · 197 games
DoomATF
Doom
Chen
ChenDuBu
64% · 103 games46% · 176 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Windranger
WindrangerDJ
46% · 138 games40% · 199 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
53% · 62 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct7:18
Bleed Esports 37%PSG Quest 63%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 19:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
51% · 236 games58% · 93 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Underlord
Underlordiceiceice
57% · 128 games55% · 117 games
BroodmotherATF
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickDJ
46% · 647 games45% · 352 games
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDuBu
49% · 41 game47% · 239 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
44% · 251 game
UndyingKaori
Undying
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 72%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2