?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Salvation Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
80%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 5 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
DJ · 5 games
80%

Salvation Gaming

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
Rupido · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 683 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 645 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
392 picks · 323 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
378 picks · 834 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 461 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
358 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 595 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Bleed Esports 56%Salvation Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
53% · 128 games54% · 138 games
Keeper of the LightWonder'boy
Keeper of the Light
Leshrac
LeshracEmo
51% · 107 games48% · 146 games
Templar AssassinYoungGodLevi
Templar Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
51% · 235 games45% · 203 games
MarsRupido
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfirePoloson
41% · 172 games55% · 138 games
GyrocopterDric~
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyDJ
50% · 198 games54% · 215 games
ClockwerkLOyd
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct19:11
Bleed Esports 56%Salvation Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoEmo
51% · 51 game47% · 100 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Lifestealer
LifestealerJaCkky
57% · 95 games48% · 202 games
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
51% · 247 games54% · 9 games
OmniknightRupido
Omniknight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDJ
46% · 129 games48% · 360 games
RubickDric~
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorPoloson
51% · 285 games52% · 136 games
TerrorbladeLOyd
Terrorblade
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 62%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2