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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 9 games
56%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 6 games
83%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
DJ · 5 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
60%

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 16 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 15 games
47%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Palos · 14 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gabbi · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 664 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
411 picks · 590 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 728 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
409 picks · 378 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
338 picks · 954 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:22
Bleed Esports 42%TNC Predator 58%
The model gave 58% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEmo
44% · 5 games52% · 271 game
TinyPalos
Tiny
Razor
RazorJaCkky
51% · 91 game43% · 111 games
ZeusYowe
Zeus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzeal
58% · 172 games45% · 65 games
MuertaJing
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPoloson
53% · 129 games38% · 41 game
Winter WyvernKuku
Winter Wyvern
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSe
56% · 91 game
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Bleed Esports 43%TNC Predator 57%
The model gave 57% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordJaCkky
42% · 15 games53% · 43 games
ClinkzPalos
Clinkz
Leshrac
LeshracEmo
53% · 28 games56% · 54 games
SniperYowe
Sniper
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
40% · 37 games54% · 38 games
MarciJing
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPoloson
53% · 65 games52% · 50 games
VenomancerKuku
Venomancer
Mirana
MiranaSe
40% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 65%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2