Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Poloson · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Hoodwink
DJ · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
TNC Predator
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 26 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
417 picks · 613 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 385 bans
Crystal Maiden
365 picks · 141 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 575 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 652 bans
Dark Willow
315 picks · 341 bans
Rubick
315 picks · 154 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total70% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
Bleed Esports 40%TNC Predator 60%
The model gave 60% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaJaCkky
GyrocopterPalos
MeepoEmo
Earth SpiritYowe
Beastmasterzeal
ClockwerkJing
EnchantressSe
Witch DoctorKuku
Shadow DemonPoloson
Game 2prediction missed35:8
Bleed Esports 39%TNC Predator 61%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 27:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidJaCkky
WeaverPalos
Dark Seerzeal
RazorYowe
Void SpiritEmo
Spirit BreakerJing
RubickPoloson
Witch DoctorKuku
Crystal MaidenSe
Game 3prediction correct15:23
Bleed Esports 42%TNC Predator 58%
The model gave 58% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidJaCkky
Troll WarlordPalos
Storm SpiritEmo
Ember SpiritYowe
Timbersawzeal
PugnaKuku
OracleSe
Dark WillowJing
RubickPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 70%
Series resultTNC Predator 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3