Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 11 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 7 games
Slarkoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
iceiceice · 5 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
708 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
573 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1157 bans
Doom
468 picks · 868 bans
Ember Spirit
419 picks · 1070 bans
Pangolier
402 picks · 859 bans
Enchantress
394 picks · 568 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:7
Bleed Esports 65%XERXIA 35%
The model gave 65% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 29:17.
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Bleed Esports 65%XERXIA 35%
The model gave 65% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 38:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 65%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2