ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Blue pikachuloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
HHotHeadedRebornwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue pikachu
Phoenixoften banned
Alren · 1 game
HotHeadedReborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 403 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 438 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 607 bans
Lion
221 picks · 190 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 96 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% HotHeadedReborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Blue pikachu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:46
Blue pikachu 49%HotHeadedReborn 51%
The model gave 51% on HotHeadedReborn — the game was taken by HotHeadedReborn in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful SpiritAlren
TimbersawZore
Model check result
Model favoriteBlue pikachu · 52%
Series resultHotHeadedReborn 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1