PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blue pikachuloss 0:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
SXSustancia Xwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue pikachu
No games played over 6 months.
Sustancia X
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
499 picks · 664 bans
Muerta
475 picks · 407 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 592 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 518 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
416 picks · 937 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Blue pikachu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Sustancia X
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Blue pikachu 33%Sustancia X 67%
The model gave 67% on Sustancia X — the game was taken by Sustancia X.
Model check result
Model favoriteSustancia X · 67%
Series resultSustancia X 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1