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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BocaJuniorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
43%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fbz · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 4 games
50%

BocaJuniors

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
212 picks · 242 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
208 picks · 93 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 403 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
179 picks · 240 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
171 picks · 251 bans
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
171 picks · 396 bans
66%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% BocaJuniors
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
BOOM Esports 79%BocaJuniors 21%
The model gave 79% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BocaJuniors in 52:10.
Game 2prediction correct36:8
BOOM Esports 79%BocaJuniors 21%
The model gave 79% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:05.
Game 3prediction correct47:39
BOOM Esports 79%BocaJuniors 21%
The model gave 79% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:14:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 79%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3