?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Castawakeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 25 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jaunuel · 20 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
53%

Castawake

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Bob · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 619 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 241 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 431 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 824 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 548 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 820 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 322 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
354 picks · 412 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
BOOM Esports 72%Castawake 28%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Castawake in 1:00:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorJaCkky
63% · 83 games32% · 90 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightArmel
53% · 220 games48% · 273 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
64% · 216 games46% · 315 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Undying
UndyingJaunuel
45% · 53 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTims
58% · 106 games
Game 2prediction correct31:10
BOOM Esports 70%Castawake 30%
The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
53% · 177 games49% · 81 game
LinaBob
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainArmel
47% · 83 games45% · 89 games
DawnbreakerFbz
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaJabz
49% · 53 games52% · 204 games
BatriderDJ
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerJaunuel
57% · 30 games
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTims
54% · 31 game
Game 3prediction correct29:4
BOOM Esports 70%Castawake 30%
The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyJaCkky
49% · 306 games53% · 114 games
DawnbreakerFbz
Dawnbreaker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainArmel
48% · 95 games51% · 275 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaJabz
46% · 129 games50% · 280 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Mirana
MiranaJaunuel
52% · 98 games
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTims
49% · 41 game
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 86%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3