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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 8 games
88%

Estar Backs

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 5 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Mnz · 5 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
418 picks · 679 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 635 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
392 picks · 320 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
375 picks · 449 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
374 picks · 829 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 585 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:31
BOOM Esports 62%Estar Backs 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPakazs
53% · 121 game44% · 74 games
TimbersawDarkMago
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
50% · 196 games42% · 35 games
Phantom AssassinMnz
Phantom Assassin
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanda
58% · 94 games46% · 116 games
Primal BeastSacred
Primal Beast
45% · 69 games
Dark WillowYor
Dark Willow
53% · 117 games
GrimstrokeMichael
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed6:26
BOOM Esports 60%Estar Backs 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 20:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPakazs
48% · 217 games42% · 31 game
AbaddonMnz
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
57% · 293 games50% · 102 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Bane
BanePanda
41% · 55 games52% · 174 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
51% · 154 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
54% · 104 games
DisruptorYor
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 70%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2