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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 20 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
84%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
80%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

Evil Geniuses

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
650 picks · 473 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 970 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
381 picks · 465 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 190 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 561 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
337 picks · 655 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 429 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 590 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
BOOM Esports 67%Evil Geniuses 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:10.
Game 2prediction correct19:21
BOOM Esports 67%Evil Geniuses 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 50:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 67%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2