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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 6 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyde · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Fbz · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lichoften banned
Khezcute · 2 games
50%

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
252 picks · 524 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
234 picks · 282 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
209 picks · 381 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
170 picks · 296 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 527 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
165 picks · 192 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
159 picks · 210 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:13
BOOM Esports 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage23savage
36% · 11 games77% · 9 games
MedusaYowe
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
60% · 12 games41% · 23 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
66% · 23 games35% · 53 games
MarsRupido
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixHyde
59% · 42 games39% · 13 games
TuskRR
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKhezcute
64% · 10 games
Game 2prediction correct30:24
BOOM Esports 52%Execration 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
25% · 4 games54% · 14 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Ursa
Ursa23savage
42% · 24 games56% · 29 games
MorphlingYowe
Morphling
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFbz
36% · 25 games62% · 29 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKhezcute
35% · 25 games62% · 48 games
Keeper of the LightRR
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerHyde
47% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 58%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2