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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 6 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hyde · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Fbz · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyde · 3 games
0%

Execration

Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
RR · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 959 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
414 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 675 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 592 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 281 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 180 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 382 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 225 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:9
BOOM Esports 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDreamocel
42% · 60 games62% · 64 games
JuggernautPalos
Juggernaut
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
41% · 44 gameslittle data
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
PuckMikoto
38% · 183 games50% · 221 game
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaHyde
59% · 73 games55% · 123 games
PhoenixRR
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKhezcute
47% · 48 games
Game 2prediction correct14:23
BOOM Esports 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDreamocel
46% · 16 games54% · 7 games
Drow RangerPalos
Drow Ranger
Dazzle
DazzleMikoto
little data50% · 49 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
48% · 82 games50% · 106 games
MarsForce
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixKhezcute
57% · 71 game55% · 55 games
Nyx AssassinRR
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionHyde
39% · 48 games
Game 3prediction correct37:35
BOOM Esports 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDreamocel
52% · 23 games53% · 40 games
Phantom AssassinPalos
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackFbz
47% · 14 games60% · 43 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
47% · 31 game50% · 4 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskHyde
44% · 60 games50% · 64 games
GrimstrokeRR
Grimstroke
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKhezcute
43% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3