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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 13 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 8 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 7 games
29%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
451 picks · 189 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 579 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
366 picks · 869 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 418 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 399 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:27
BOOM Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeDreamocel
44% · 73 games50% · 111 games
JuggernautPalos
Juggernaut
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
58% · 64 games51% · 76 games
InvokerYowe
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
60% · 36 games51% · 96 games
Dragon KnightForce
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixKhezcute
48% · 153 games49% · 105 games
Ancient ApparitionRR
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskHyde
41% · 62 games
Game 2prediction correct18:9
BOOM Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDreamocel
56% · 67 games52% · 100 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
48% · 50 games41% · 67 games
AxeForce
Axe
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
53% · 78 games50% · 93 games
InvokerYowe
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixHyde
49% · 83 games53% · 103 games
Elder TitanRR
Elder Titan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKhezcute
47% · 85 games
Game 3prediction correct49:30
BOOM Esports 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:01:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiDreamocel
39% · 40 games53% · 53 games
Phantom LancerPalos
Phantom Lancer
Mars
MarsFbz
47% · 190 games56% · 241 game
PuckYowe
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
49% · 24 games48% · 51 game
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKhezcute
43% · 161 game54% · 200 games
PhoenixRR
Phoenix
Mirana
MiranaHyde
56% · 130 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 54%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3