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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 15 games
93%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 12 games
83%
Razor
Razorsignature
Tino- · 12 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
25%
Bane
Bane
RR · 14 games
36%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 11 games
27%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RR · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 272 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
408 picks · 533 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 442 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 485 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 547 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
276 picks · 505 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
276 picks · 300 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 369 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 28%
Hero pool strength72% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total93% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:25
BOOM Esports 79%Execration 21%
The model gave 79% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
51% · 195 games55% · 209 games
LinaBob
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
56% · 197 games51% · 238 games
TinyPalos
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireYopaj
46% · 343 games49% · 131 game
Dragon KnightTino-
Dragon Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTims
50% · 77 games47% · 155 games
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Io
IoSkem
48% · 189 games46% · 268 games
GrimstrokeRR
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct34:7
BOOM Esports 80%Execration 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 22:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
52% · 247 games55% · 152 games
Faceless VoidPalos
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
50% · 189 games57% · 85 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
58% · 200 games54% · 281 game
TinyBob
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
43% · 174 games44% · 150 games
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSkem
47% · 106 games40% · 248 games
GrimstrokeRR
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct43:14
BOOM Esports 81%Execration 19%
The model gave 81% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
52% · 71 game51% · 257 games
TinyPalos
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
48% · 152 games43% · 128 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
49% · 168 games36% · 39 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaTims
61% · 173 games46% · 191 game
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSkem
54% · 91 game57% · 40 games
OmniknightRR
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 93%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3