Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 30 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 23 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 17 games
Execration
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
cml · 11 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
409 picks · 419 bans
Rubick
408 picks · 304 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 898 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 810 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
Phoenix
351 picks · 705 bans
Clockwerk
346 picks · 480 bans
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
BOOM Esports 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenParker
LifestealerAbat
Death ProphetSacred
VisageTino-
MarsDarkMago
TinyShanks
MarciMatthew
Jakirocml
EnchantressYadomi
Game 2prediction correct29:10
BOOM Esports 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaParker
SlarkAbat
KunkkaDarkMago
DoomTino-
BrewmasterSacred
Visagecml
BatriderMatthew
Monkey KingShanks
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 60%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2