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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 21 game
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 19 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 17 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
459 picks · 373 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 540 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
379 picks · 482 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 194 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
363 picks · 587 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 399 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 586 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 856 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
BOOM Esports 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 55:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMac
55% · 225 games42% · 234 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
52% · 295 games47% · 564 games
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
55% · 252 games47% · 391 game
Dark WillowShanks
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
53% · 332 games53% · 155 games
Lichcml
Lich
Phoenix
PhoenixTims
50% · 240 games
Game 2prediction correct34:25
BOOM Esports 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 282 games42% · 341 game
MorphlingAkashi
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
55% · 91 game49% · 156 games
MarciTino-
Marci
Enigma
EnigmaFbz
61% · 107 games45% · 306 games
Dark WillowShanks
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaJaunuel
50% · 101 game46% · 30 games
Warlockcml
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
58% · 252 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2